“Own what AI cannot avoid. Then own what monetizes it. Buy optionality last.”
No secured power. No committed demand. No financing edge. No pricing power.
The evidence is ordered by consequence. First, the U.S. 10-year Treasury is around 5.20% after touching 5.2251%, while the 30-year is near 5.48% after reaching 5.5016% — the highest levels in roughly two decades. Second, Brent remains near $105.6, keeping the energy-inflation channel open. Third, SoftBank has raised $11.1 billion to finance OpenAI at dollar coupons reaching 9.75%. Yet AI investment continues.
The consequence is clear: AI growth now has to compete for capital on materially tougher terms.
Five Signals
Ordered by consequence
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U.S. long yields are at multi-decade highs. Long-duration growth is being repriced against a 5%+ sovereign benchmark. Favor current earnings, pricing power and low refinancing dependence. signal: Earnings visibility > distant optionality
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Brent is trading near $105.6/bbl, despite tentative hopes for U.S.–Iran progress. Energy remains high enough to sustain inflation and policy pressure. Prefer energy-resilient assets; avoid low-margin businesses unable to pass through higher input costs. signal: Energy → inflation → rates
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SoftBank has issued $11.1 billion of bonds to fund OpenAI, with dollar tranches priced at 8.625%, 9.25% and 9.75%. AI demand remains strong, but financing is becoming more selective. Favor distribution, subscriptions, contracted demand and visible utilization over uncommitted capacity. signal: Monetization > megawatts
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Washington and Beijing continue negotiations over AI, trade and critical inputs, while the broader relationship remains strategically interdependent rather than fully decoupled. Dependencies are increasingly being used as bargaining instruments. Favor supply-chain redundancy and assets positioned at critical technological and material chokepoints. signal: Interdependence becomes leverage
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French 10-year borrowing costs now trade more than 110 basis points above Germany, the widest spread since the euro-area crisis, even as Europe continues investing in strategic infrastructure. Europe is becoming more attractive by sector and less attractive as a single macro trade. Favor grids, electrification, automation, semiconductor equipment, secure infrastructure, rail and infrastructure finance. signal: Own the enablers, not the fragility
The Velocity Insight
Where value is decided
Investor Action Hierarchy
Own what AI cannot avoid — buy optionality last
Core Overweight: Mandatory Bottlenecks
Semiconductors, HBM, memory, advanced networking, grids, firm power, resilient data centres. Structural demand, difficult substitution, strongest pricing power.
Selective Overweight: Monetization Engines
Agentic distribution, AI security, enterprise deployment, infrastructure finance. Closest to customers, transactions and recurring revenue.
Selective Only: Funded Optionality
Frontier models, new compute platforms, emerging AI infrastructure. Require secured customers, strong balance sheets, visible utilization and credible unit economics.
Underweight: Dependent Capacity
Uncontracted compute, leveraged infrastructure, weak intermediaries and businesses reliant on external power or financing.
Positioning for the third race
- Own mandatory bottlenecks before optionality.
- Prefer cash conversion over capacity announcements.
- Treat power and resilience as earnings variables.
- Demand contracted utilization from AI infrastructure.
- In Europe, overweight industrial enablers; underweight sovereign and financing fragility.