“Do not ask for the seat. Create the cost of your absence.”
Is Europe still capable of getting back to the table where the rules of the Next Economy are being negotiated? The Trump–Xi meeting makes the question unavoidable.
Washington and Beijing are not ending strategic competition; they are exploring a more durable equilibrium: compete harder, escalate less. That gives both powers time to compound. Europe risks becoming the market between the two systems rather than the power shaping them.
The Argument
how the pieces fit
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Europe was not at the Trump–Xi table. That alone is irrelevant. The danger is that both powers find they can write the rules without needing Europe in the room. signal: Europe needs leverage, not recognition.
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The emerging equilibrium could leave Europe wealthy but strategically secondary: American technology dominates frontier intelligence; Chinese industrial scale pressures European industry; Europe regulates and consumes both systems. signal: Prosperity without power.
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The objective should be measurable: Europe must get back to the negotiating table by 2030 — not because Washington or Beijing grants it a seat, but because excluding Europe becomes economically expensive. signal: Autonomy → Indispensability | Regulation → Capital Formation | Fragmentation → Scale | Digital Adoption → Physical AI | Savings → Strategic Equity
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Europe holds strategic positions in semiconductor equipment, photonics, industrial automation, power systems, aerospace, advanced manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, mobility, robotics and critical infrastructure. The problem is not the absence of assets — it is that they do not yet operate as a system. signal: Technology → Capital → Energy → Industry → Scale
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Europe should not try to replicate Silicon Valley. The next AI race moves from tokens to agents, machines and infrastructure. The further intelligence moves into the physical economy, the stronger Europe's comparative position becomes. signal: Make Europe the global platform for Physical AI.
Il Grande Gioco
the managed bipolar system
The Big Take
investors and policymakers
Follow the stack, not the hyperscaler
Follow Europe's Physical AI stack, not the search for a European hyperscaler. The decisive investment signal is European velocity.
Energy is a technology asset
Treat electricity, compute and grids as one integrated AI policy. Energy becomes a technology asset, not just an input.
Price the bottlenecks
Europe's strategic bottlenecks deserve a scarcity premium. Watch capital formation, not valuations alone.
Optimize for scale
Stop optimizing primarily for regulation. Use European procurement to manufacture European scale; treat the Savings and Investments Union as national-security infrastructure.
Protect only what is strategic
Protect only genuinely strategic dependencies; remain open everywhere else. Make Physical AI Europe's strategic specialization.
One measurable objective
Europe must become a necessary negotiating power again by 2030.
for investors and policymakers
- Follow Europe's Physical AI stack, not the search for a European hyperscaler.
- Energy becomes a technology asset.
- Europe's strategic bottlenecks deserve a scarcity premium.
- Watch capital formation, not valuations alone; the decisive signal is European velocity.
- Treat electricity, compute and grids as one integrated AI policy.
- Use European procurement to manufacture European scale.
- Set one measurable objective: Europe must become a necessary negotiating power again by 2030.